This poll in The Australian today, on who voters would like to see lead the Federal Opposition, will have number crunchers in the Liberal Party working the phones like never before.
Well, not since about a year out from the last election anyway, when Peter Costello opted out of a party room fight to the death with John Howard.
Anyway, the poll resembles some very similar numbers to the results we I came up with here about two months ago when we asked listeners the same question: Who’s best to lead the Liberals?
It’s almost identical as a matter of fact. Brendan Nelson scored 18 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull 24 per cent and Peter Costello 41 per cent. Now we threw in Joe Hockey in our poll, and so Costello’s 51% here, probably equates accurately to that 41% scored by the Herald.
Interesting, isn’t it? Now I’ve had a couple of chats this week to relatively senior bods in the Liberal party and the widespread understanding is that there’ll be no real challenge. But there will be a handover.
Which makes sense, when you consider what current leader Brendan Nelson said on Sky last week: He wouldn’t deny that there’d be an orderly handover to Peter Costello, if he decided he wanted to lead the party.
I wonder how long ago that loose agreement was brokered?
Anyway, that leaves the aspect of timing. When should Peter take the mantel and therefore challenge Kevin Rudd after just one term?
Well, my mail is that it will be as the government comes off its honeymoon period, which is probably drawing close. Given the government’s commitment to formulating its specific carbon emissions plan in about late October - November’s the month.
He also has a book launch at that time and it will no doubt favour his version of events, which will probably ingratiate Peter Costello to a doubtful electorate.
So, write that in the diary.
November, which is two years out from the three year expiry of the current Parliament.
Now that’s the required time, political watchers claim, for new leaders to nestle in the role.
The public needs that long to determine their suitability to the top job.
Is he the one? Will the smirk get in the way? And if he loses, should Peter Costello leave politics for good?
Or maybe it’s a second shot strategy. Drag the Labor party back to the pack, reduce their majority, and take ‘em out in 2013.
Gee, that’s a long wait for someone like Peter Costello, who first became an MP in 1990. If he has to wait til 2013 - that’s 23 years in the waiting.
That’d drive me nuts, no matter what the end prize was.
