Fears are growing that the commodities boom is ending as investors who have fled the oil market desert gold, copper and other metals.
Oil prices have slumped 23 per cent in four weeks, while gold and copper have fallen by similar amounts and last week lead plunged 15 per cent.
The falls follow a fundamental shift in financial flows as investors prepare for a global slowdown, The Australian reports.
"The speed and weight of money behind this move has been quite breathtaking," ANZ foreign exchange strategist Tony Morriss said.
The Australian dollar - the world's strongest currency in the first half this year because of its commodities link - has become one of the weakest over the past two weeks, falling 10 per cent against the US dollar and retreating even against the New Zealand dollar.
The Australian economy will still gain from boom-time prices for some time as sharp iron ore and coal prices are locked in for another 12 months, but previous commodity busts have been steep, and the economy could face challenging management problems, especially on the external account, if the terms of trade reverses sharply.
"Commodity booms end ugly, they always do, and there has never been an exception," Access Economics director Chris Richardson told the newspaper.
Mr Richardson said it would not be until coal and iron ore prices fell that the boom would definitively be over for Australia, although the downturn was more serious than the correction in base metals prices in 2006.
"This downswing is more consistent with the global economic fundamentals," he said, warning that Australia would face serious economic problems if the downturn continued. "The commodity markets are more central to Australian national income than either credit markets or share markets."
The government does not believe world commodity markets have reached a turning point and is pinning hopes on continued growth from China, with Treasurer Wayne Swan telling The Australian: "Prices for our commodity exports are still at generational highs and ongoing demand from emerging economies give us some cause for optimism, despite slowing global growth."
Treasury believes the continuing strength of iron ore and coal markets suggests the boom retains some strength.
However, the simultaneous shifts in currency and commodity markets indicate financial markets now expect a worldwide slowdown over the year ahead.
Citigroup's New York-based energy analyst, Tim Evans, told the newspaper evidence had been emerging this year that soaring prices had changed the balance of supply and demand for oil.
As oil fell, so too did other commodity prices. Gold hit an all-time peak of $US1,032 an ounce in March and was trading at $US965 in mid-July but dropped below $US775 on Friday. Copper has fallen almost 20 per cent from $US8,950 a tonne on July 2 to $US7,335. Nickel is down from $US32,000 a tonne to below $US18,000. Aluminium, lead and zinc have had similar falls.
