Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Telstra Dome
Friday, August 22, 7.40pm
Head to head Western Bulldogs 56 Essendon 87 Drawn 2
Last time Western Bulldogs 19.14 (128) bt Essendon 14.14 (98) R4 2008, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet Western Bulldogs $1.10 Essendon $6
Centrebet Western Bulldogs $1.12 Essendon $6.25
Summary The Bulldogs can't afford to add to their two-game losing streak this week against Essendon if they are to take any credentials into the finals series. The Bombers' injury list is critical, they are running on empty and if the Dogs can't inflict a substantial loss on them they will be at the mercy of any side in the eight next month. Rodney Eade tomorrow takes part in his 500th game as a player and coach and won't want to mark that milestone with a loss to a young and inexperienced side, just when his charges need a big shot of confidence. The Bulldogs will surely dominate the midfield where Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen and Daniel Cross will have too much talent for the Bombers.
Key The Bulldogs need to restrict revitalised Bombers forward Matthew Lloyd, but it's not likely he'll be seeing that much of the ball anyway.
Tip Western Bulldogs by 35 points
Richmond v Fremantle
MCG
Saturday, August 23, 2.10pm
Head to head Richmond 10 Fremantle 9 Drawn 0
Last time Richmond 20.17 (137) bt Fremantle 10.13 (73) R4 2008, Subiaco
Betting TABSportsbet Richmond $1.30 Fremantle $3.30
Centrebet Richmond $1.35 Fremantle $3.20
Summary The Tigers are pumped up after pulling off one of the upsets of the season by beating Hawthorn last week, but unfortunately that's not likely to do them much good. They should win their last two games against the Dockers and Melbourne but would need teams above them to lose to make the eight. That's not really going to happen. Fremantle have been woeful and have won just one match interstate from nine this year. Richmond have the edge at the MCG, although they were far from impressive there this year, while the Dockers are confused and tend to flounder.
Inspirational forward Matthew Richardson can be expected to carry the scoreboard load but the Tigers are now getting more and more from their young players.
Key The midfield will be the key for the Tigers - they must ensure the ball doesn't drift down towards Dockers star Matthew Pavlich, or there could be problems.
Tip Richmond by 35 points
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
AAMI Stadium
Saturday, August 23, 2.40pm
Head to head Port Adelaide 9 Melbourne 8 Drawn 0
Last time Port Adelaide 25.13 (163) bt Melbourne 11.8 (74) R17 2007, AAMI Stadium
Betting TABSportsbet Port Adelaide $1.38 Melbourne $2.90
Centrebet Port Adelaide $1.37 Melbourne $3.10
Summary The most the Demons can take out of this year is the exposure and subsequent obvious potential of the young players they save been forced to call up in the wake of injuries and retirement. ihe spark of a rebuild can be seen through the likes of Austin Wonaeamirri, Cale Morton and Shane Valenti, but whether that is enough to topple the Power at home is doubtful. One edge the Demons have is the detailed knowledge their coach Dean Bailey has of Port players, from his years there as an assistant coach. But the Power have more experience and class and should be boosted by the return of the eye-catching Daniel Motlop. Both teams have battled to win at AAMI Stadium. This year the Power have lost nine from 11 there.
Key The Burgoyne brothers and Motlop should cause too much damage for the Demons.
Tip Port Adelaide by 25 points
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
GABBA
Saturday, August 23, 7.10pm
Head to head Brisbane 9 Carlton 6 Drawn 0
Last time Brisbane 18.17 (125) bt Carlton 12.20 (92) R8 2008, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet Brisbane $1.36 Carlton $3
Centrebet Brisbane $1.45 Carlton $2.75
Summary Brisbane have a big task to make the finals and need desperately to win this before trying to take out the Swans at the SCG in the final round. There's a lot in their favour, including the extraordinary dominance the Lions have had over the Blues, dating back to 2001. And they've generally been comfortable wins.
Carlton clung onto a finals dream for weeks but it was finally ended by North Melbourne last Sunday, so the question is, what do the Blues have left to play for? Brisbane have a big edge at home and have Daniel Bradshaw back from injury in his 200th game to join goalkicking powerhouse Jonathan Brown. The Lions have more depth and they know the Blues are relying on a few stars while they
develop their undoubted young talent.
Key Brendan Fevola is Carlton's one-trick show, but even he won't be able to keep the Lions at bay.
Tip Brisbane by 25 points.
Collingwood v Sydney
Telstra Dome
Saturday, August 23, 7.10pm
Head to head Collingwood 131 Sydney 79 Drawn 1
Last time Collingwood 11.13 (79) bt Sydney 6.14 (50) R14 2008 ANZ Stadium
Betting TABSportsbet Collingwood $1.72 Sydney $2.05
Centrebet Collingwood $1.74 Sydney $2.10
Summary This game presents Sydney with their worst nightmare - away from home, against a bogey team, in a must-win situation. The Swans need to break the jinx which has seen them drop their past five games to the Magpies, a side which has regrouped after its off-field problems and is now on the rise with two wins in succession at just the right time. Sydney will still be without agile goalkicker Michael O'Loughlin, whose ankle problems will keep him out until the final round, but Adam Goodes and Barry Hall are a potent force. Collingwood has rallied after the Alan Didak-Heath Shaw fiasco. Other midfielders have stepped up and allowed the side to remain in finals contention. And the scoreboard depth is there - 10 players scored goals for the Magpies last week in a healthy sign of across the board strength.
Key Barry Hall has finally found some good form with five goals against Geelong last week, but the Magpies are set to deny him by winning the centre.
Tip Collingwood by 35 points
Geelong v North Melbourne
Skilled Stadium
Sunday, August 24, 1.10pm
Head to head Geelong 87 North Melbourne 58 Drawn 1
Last time Geelong 19.13 (127) bt North Melbourne 17.12 (114) R11
2008, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet Geelong $1.15 North Melbourne $5
Centrebet Geelong $1.16 North Melbourne $5.25
Summary On form the Kangaroos are the second best side in the competition. They have rocketed to fourth on the ladder on the back of six straight wins, more than any other side except their tpponent this week, Geelong, who have 11 won on the run. Heart and a refusal to relinquish intensity drag North over the line a lot of the time but they will probably need more than that this time. Like talent. And class. The Cats have that to spare and the outcome of this clash will almost certainly give a glimpse into the validity of North's flag bid. Geelong have had the ability to sail past the opposition due to their remarkable depth but this week will be boosted by the return of star defenders Matthew Scarlett and Darren Milburn, along with busy midfielder Paul Chapman. It's a lot for the Roos to deal with.
Key Whether North are capable of playing above themselves. The difference was only 13 points Geelong's way in round 11, so a little improvement could go a long way.
Tip Geelong by 20 points
St Kilda v Adelaide
Telstra Dome
Sunday, August 24, 2.10 pm
Head to head St Kilda 10 Adelaide 16 Drawn 1
Last time St Kilda 11.16 (82) bt Adelaide 12.8 (80) R15 2007,
Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet St Kilda $1.78 Adelaide $1.95
Centrebet St Kilda $1.75 Adelaide $2.08
Summary Both sides have plenty to play for here - Adelaide can challenge for fourth spot with a win, while victory for St Kilda strengthens their place in the eight. The Crows have unleashed a rampage in the past month, stringing together four wins on end and now face a rival they have had a see-saw battle with for the past five years. A lot depends on what type of game the Saints bring to the Dome. Their form has been hot and cold, they will be missing Luke Ball until the last round and Stephen Milne will be given until the last minute to prove his fitness after suffering a fractured cheekbone last week. Some motivation for the Saints in giving veteran midfielder Robert Harvey a decent send-off in his last home game. The Crows have proven that the lack of a key forward is no impediment to goal-scoring so the midfielders who transform into goalkickers will need to be contained if St Kilda
are to have a chance.
Key Adelaide must shut down big Saint forwards Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke if they are to reverse the result of their two-point defeat by St Kilda last time they met, in round 15, 2007.
Tip Adelaide by 15 points
West Coast v Hawthorn
Subiaco
Sunday, August 24, 2.40pm
Head to head West Coast 21 Hawthorn 12 Drawn 0
Last time Hawthorn 18.18 (126) bt West Coast 9.15 (59) R14 2008, MCG
Betting TABSportsbet West Coast $6.75 Hawthorn $1.08
Centrebet West Coast $6.25 Hawthorn $1.12
Summary Incensed by their unexpected loss to Richmond last week, Hawthorn will vent their anger on the hapless Eagles in Perth on Sunday. Last time, Lance Franklin kicked five goals and Jarryd Roughead six as the Hawks strolled to victory in round 14. It's likely to be a similar story this weekend. Hawk captain Sam
Mitchell admitted he had never used the ball so poorly before last week, so expect him to be fired up to redeem himself. He and veteran Shane Crawford can spearhead the midfield, but Luke Hodge will sit out this one after accepting a week's suspension on a striking charge. Even a loss won't budge Hawthorn from second spot but they will be unlikely to make any slip-ups in what should be a
straight-forward win.
Key Hawthorn have too much talent across the board, but they will have to keep an eye on the league's best ruckman, Eagle Dean Cox.
Tip Hawthorn by 40 points