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Friday, 09 January 2009

Australian dollar opens weaker, US lifts

1/09/2008 9:22:00 AM.  | AAP
The Australian dollar has opened lower as improved factory health in the US midwest boosted the American currency.

At 0700 AEST, the Australian dollar was trading at $US0.8566/73, down from Friday's close of 0.8609/11.

During the weekend offshore session, the local currency traded between $US0.8556 and $US0.8659.

Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton said a combination of a stronger US dollar and weaker Canadian currency pulled the domestic unit lower.

The Canadian dollar was weaker after the nation's Gross Domestic Product data for the June quarter was half the market forecast.

Canada's GDP increased 0.3 per cent for the June quarter.

"We did see very weak Canadian GDP. That saw the Canadian dollar weaken," Ms Hampton said from Wellington.

"Partly, the Aussie dollar was dragged down with that."

The US dollar was boosted after the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), an indicator of factory health in the US upper midwest, was much stronger than forecast.

Business activity in the US midwest grew in August. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business index rose to 57.9 points in August from 50.8 the previous month.

Analysts had forecast an index reading of 50.0, the benchmark that separates expansion from contraction.

"We saw a combination of that weak Canadian GDP data and stronger US data merge for a weaker Aussie dollar," Ms Hampton said.

On Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release data on the balance of payments and business indicators, both for the June quarter, while TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute release their inflation gauge for August.

Ms Hampton said the readings of inventories and the corporate profits from Monday's data would flow into Australian GDP data for the June quarter, due on Wednesday.

The market's attention is focused, however, on Tuesday's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Ms Hampton said.

All of 17 economists surveyed by AAP expect the central bank to start cutting the official cash rate, currently 7.25 per cent when the board meets on Tuesday, announcing its decision at 1430 AEST.

"Everyone is keeping their eyes on that," Ms Hampton said.

Ms Hampton expects the Australian dollar to find support at $0.8550 and possibly push towards 0.8640 during the local session on Monday.

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