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Saturday, 10 January 2009

Don't talk us into recession: RBA

19/11/2008 9:10:00 PM.  | AAP
The Reserve Bank chief says Australia should not talk itself into a recession and  it is better able to defend itself against the global economic downturn than other countries.

But the comments from RBA governor Glenn Stevens came as new data released on Wednesday suggested there is a great risk Australia will follow the world's leading economies into recession in the first six months of next year.

"The biggest mistake we could make would be to talk ourselves into unnecessary economic weakness," Mr Stevens told the Committee for Economic Development of Australia annual dinner.

He said nations with tight monetary and fiscal policy settings were better able to cope with the current economic climate.

"Those countries which went into this episode having practised disciplined macroeconomics policies over many years, and I would include Australia in this group, will tend to be the ones which find themselves with the most scope to move in an expansionary direction."

The RBA has cut the official cash rate by 200 basis points in the past three months.

Economists expect it could be reduced by a further 75 basis points when the central bank meets on December 2, given the ongoing weakness of local economic data.

Mr Stevens said policymakers must remain ready to act promptly to support the financial system and sustainable economic activity, and governments must consider worthwhile public investment "even if that involves some prudent borrowing".

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index slumped to an annualised growth rate of just 1.1 per cent in September from 3.5 per cent in August.

The index points to the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future.
"This is a very disturbing fall," Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans said.

The fall in September was the largest month-to-month percentage point fall since the mid-1980s - greater than in the 1990-91 recession - and points to a very weak growth outlook for at least the first half of 2009.

"Growth in the first half of 2009 will be barely positive with a decent risk that the first two quarters of growth in 2009 could be negative," Mr Evans said.

An economy is deemed to be in recession when it posts two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

However, RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey told an earlier conference that the central bank's decision to cut rates quickly, the federal government's $10.4 billion fiscal stimulus package and a weak Australian dollar would help soften the impact of the crisis.

Last week, the RBA cut its economic growth forecast to just 1.5 per cent by June next year, undercutting Treasury's trimmed 2.0 per cent prediction.

Treasury, however, took the unusual step of including market expectations of further interest rate reductions in its outlook.

Secretary to the Treasury Ken Henry defended the forecast last week after the federal opposition called it "suspicious".

Still, comments by Dr Edey suggest all the argy-bargy that surrounded the forecasts may have been for nothing.

Dr Edey emphasised that any forecasts in the current environment were subject to a great deal of uncertainty.

"Not least because the situation in world financial markets is still changing rapidly," Dr Edey told delegates at the Australia and Japan Economic Outlook Conference in Sydney.

Most of the recent economic data indicates a slowdown in growth but most were calculated before the start of the latest financial meltdown that followed the collapse of US investment bank giant Lehman Brothers on September 15.

"So they are of limited value in assessing the impact of the latest round of financial turmoil, which dates from mid-September," he said.

COMMENTS

Wednesday, 19 November 2008

Actually the worst thing we could do was voting in Rudd. And we have done that. The next worse thing we can do is to unquestioningly accept that he be allowed to dismantle our economy and give it to the industrialists who support him. Then the next worse thing is to look away as things crumble. If we have any thought at all for future generations, for our children, then we won't accept unquestioningly what Rudd is telling us. We may well fall into recession because of what Rudd has done.

Posted by: Happy Fun Ball, Carramar/Sydney

 

Thursday, 20 November 2008

So the RBA knows nothing where is the social responsibility of the govenor they greedily pushed up the rates now they admit it was all guess work way off beam and the housing minister pilbasek where is here social responsibility

Posted by: baden mcuen, balmain sydney

 

Thursday, 20 November 2008

The liberal party Turnbull and the plageriser herself Bishop have done nothing but insult The Reserve Bank chief and Australia's intelligence; we watch with interest Turnbull go on about our Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the Bush saga what a boring little man as if there is nothing else to worry about being opposition leader. The RBA and our PM are doing a fine job for our great country.

Posted by: g maybury, sydney

Thursday, 20 November 2008

g maybury- You are the boring little person-Julie Bishops so called plagiarism is even less consequential then the Rudd/Bush G20 saga but you Laborites keep bringing it up. The importance of this story is that the RBA Governor is only realising now what he should have recognised a while back-that is politicians and people like him can actually increase the chances of a recession with frightening and negative statements. People cut back on their normal spending and the whole economy suffers.

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill. The plagiarism by Julie Bishop is of mportance to everyone. Plagiarism is a breach of copyright, it is illegal to steal intellectual property. As such Bishop is a common thief, no better than some burglar feeding their heroin addiction. It also shows that Bishop is aware of her lack on intelligence and is seeking to hide that fact. Given that some fools put her name up as a replacement for the failed Spinbulldung as leader of the Opposition we are all concerned.

Posted by: Graeme Henderson, Darling Downs

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Graeme Henderson-Your brain is befogged by the colour RED. Rudd big noting himself in front of the Media-betraying diplomatic trust-is a far more important issue than Julie Bishop's alleged plagiarism. Rudd must be coming close to spending all the money that he inherited from the great John Howard - his partner in the demise of the economy is now advising him to take the Government into debt again-only Labor can make such a mess of the economy in such a short time - alas - Whitlam , Hawke and Keating revisited.

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Desmond, like all the far right you are prepared, indeed happy, to overlook the dishonesty of the Fiberal Party. But the G20 beatup had no legs, has no legs and is simply an indication of the instability of the Fiberal Leadership. You endorse the theft of intellectual property do you? You think theft is a minor issue. Why don't you mention Howard's comments about Obama and the Democrats aiding the Terrorists? Bishop is just a thief. What happened to the 5 cent a litre fuel excise cut? More lies?

Posted by: Graeme Henderson, Darling Downs

Friday, 21 November 2008

Graeme Henderson, - Just like all the extreme left you are prepared to over look Rudd’s plagiarism in relation to the Coalition's sound economic policies-including the Tax cuts-and you lot try to play down Rudd's betrayal of diplomatic trust. John Howard's comments, in relation to Obama and the Terrorists, was right-of course the Terrorists would be happy if the pressure in Iraq was taken off them. If Julie Bishop has broken the law-as you say-why is it that she has not been charged?

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Friday, 21 November 2008

Silly Dessie - nobody is going to vote for a party that has a a drag queen who mimes - sorry plagiarises - all her speeches - she even did it in a book and thought no one would notice!!!!! Not fit to be Treasurer !!!!!

Posted by: Traci Fawcett, Melbourne

Friday, 21 November 2008

Maybe des, but he didnt publish it in a book like she did! Howww Stupid is that! People get kicked out of careers for this type of stuff mate. I have voted liberal before but wont as long as she is there. Serious breach mate, seriously!No trust and really poor form!

Posted by: sam simmons, perth

Saturday, 22 November 2008

TRACI FAWCETT-You voted for a Party that has a deputy leader that looks a whole lot worse than Julie Bishop so what are you on about. SAM SIMMONS-I doubt very much if you have ever voted Liberal. Liberals would not be such hypocrites-you said that it's OK for Rudd to plagiarise as long as he doesn't put it in a book-what’s the difference he has used the information for all the World to see.

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Saturday, 22 November 2008

Oh maybury I am shattered. You have to read my next effort pet, the title is- Rudd May Bury Us. Please don't be upset i used your name youknow i cant help myself.

Posted by: the plageriser, wig town

 

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Maybury - aka Rudds mum. Stevens is talking about Rudd talking down the economy you fool. Ever since he took office his primary concern has been to big note himself and talk down the fine job done by the previous government. He has flipped and flopped so many times I dont which message he is going to give next. Funny how you twits carry on about Bishop when 95% of the Liberal tax policy was copied by the goose and now Madam Julia has retained 90% of workchoices.

Posted by: Pete 2, Brisbane

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Very eloquently put Pete 2. I wonder when the "popularity poll" people will start surveying "normal" people like us?

Posted by: Geoff Bolton, Lane Cove

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Pete 2 : It's funny that some twits are still upset that Rudd led a very clever Election campaign.He took on the Libs Policies and gained Economic creditability and along with other good policies completely outplayed the Old Fox Howard.You should be happy that Rudds retained most of workchoices?? However he did get rid of the worst of Workchoices.

Posted by: Paul Keating, Dapto

Thursday, 20 November 2008

Paul Keating-Rudd PLAGIARISED the Coalition's economic policies. He thought that with the huge surplus that he was left that life would be easy. The laugh is on him now-he does not have a clue as to how to get through these current economic problems. He is like a headless chook-remember he was going to put downward pressure on interest rates with a large surplus-now he's panicking and giving it away-all to no avail. The RBA Governor who put up interest rates when he should have been lowering them is now advising a budget deficit-madness reigns-poor fellow my Country. Inflation still HIGH!!!!!

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Saturday, 22 November 2008

Clever election campaign aimed at fooling the dumbed down media educated dummies we have turned into, only piece of clever was labor knows they can rely on their dumbed down university clowns and non english speaking voters they tell to put their X in the labor box.

Posted by: laura whocares, campaigning

 

Friday, 21 November 2008

Desmond you have to understand that Graeme Henderson is a card carrying bleeding heart do-gooder. Just let him bleat on. Read te other emails. they at least are entertaining.

Posted by: Denlo B, W'gong

 

Monday, 24 November 2008

the dismantling of the keating. hawke economy would be a blow. i suppose its easy to be in government when the global economy is not in crisis. howard and costello were indeed lucky. goodness knows how theyd cope at the moment.? too horrible to contemplate

Posted by: trevor crook, wiley pk

 
 

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